The seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers, led by LeBron James, will take on the second-seeded Denver Nuggets led by Nikola Jokic in the opening round of the NBA playoffs.
Denver is hoping to defend its 2023 championship, which will be the franchise’s first-ever. Los Angeles, who started the season ranked eighth in the West, secured the seventh playoff seed by defeating the seventh-place New Orleans Pelicans in the play-in tournament.
The two teams are playing each other in the postseason for the third time in five years, and although that familiarity helps, there are some notable differences that make this, in the words of Nuggets head coach Michael Malone following a recent practice, “a different series.”
“We know what’s ahead of us, and guys are coming off of a 57-win season,” Malone stated. “The largest obstacle, in my opinion, is that, as I explained to our guys today, it doesn’t matter that we’ve defeated them eight games in a row. Everyone keeps bringing up that fact.”
To defeat the Lakers once more in the playoffs would be extremely difficult, Malone continued. “This is a different team, a different series.”
The eight games that Michael Malone mentioned that the Nuggets had won in a row against the Lakers date back more than 15 months, to January 9, 2023, when Denver defeated Los Angeles in their final regular-season game of the previous year.
This includes the Nuggets’ four-game conference finals sweep and their three-game series win this season. Not only that, but in the last two years the Lakers have failed to defeat Denver at Ball Arena, their home floor.
The Lakers are perhaps playing their best postseason basketball since the 2020 bubble, despite the Nuggets’ recent domination which seems to suggest they have L.A. beat.
Cleaning the Glass reports that the Lakers, with their fourth-best offense (119.7), have the 12th-best net rating in the NBA since the mid-February All-Star break, at plus-3.6 points per 100 possessions.
They also have multiple All-NBA star Anthony Davis and one of the best players of all time in LeBron James, thus they are a dangerous team to play against.
Malone noted that there is a genuine challenge, and Denver’s victory is far from certain, even if the Nuggets (-350) are substantially favored against the Lakers (+275) in the betting lines.
How will the Nuggets overcome their most notable opponent in the postseason, then? The answers to the five questions we examine here might tip the scales in favor of one side or the other.
Can the Lakers contain Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, the “dynamic duo,” and their potent two-man combo?
The Lakers’ seeming incapacity to limit Denver’s offensive strength when both Jokic and Murray are on the court and to find ways to score on the opposite end is arguably the most blatant area of the Nuggets’ superiority over them that has emerged from their recent meetings.
Denver, with Murray and Jokic sharing the floor over the course of their last eight games, has utterly destroyed the Lakers, according to data from PBP Stats. Denver has averaged a scorching net rating of plus-14.3 points per 100 possessions, which is significantly higher than the league average of plus-11.3 set during the regular season by the Boston Celtics.
The Lakers have essentially thrown everything at Jokic, including the kitchen sink. They guarded him in the playoffs last year under Davis, quickly moved to the “Rui Hachimura adjustment,” which wasn’t as successful as expected, and finally threw everything at the wall, including James (who probably guarded Jokic better than any of his teammates), but to no avail.
If L.A. can’t figure out a way to limit the damage Murray and Jokic inflict, then none of the other swing factors may matter much and Denver may be breaking out brooms.
Will LeBron James (and Anthony Davis) continue to turn back the clock?
Out of all active players, LeBron James has played a league-high (and astounding) 56,597 total career minutes—more than 10,000 more than Chris Paul, who comes in second. And although if he now appears to be more of a Terminator than a human, it is still unclear if he can withstand a decline in performance due to the grind and exhaustion that come with playing farther into the playoffs at a much higher level.
Although Anthony Davis has 25,409 lifetime minutes, which ranks him 31st among current players, his wear and tear from several ailments over his NBA career is a bigger worry than his mileage.
The Lakers will probably not be able to win this series without both of their best players performing at or close to their peak, so this puts them in a potentially dangerous predicament. However, if they can persevere and maintain their health, they will have a much better chance of making it a competitive contest.
Can Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, two of Denver’s former free agents, be successfully replaced by Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, and Peyton Watson in terms of performance and impact?
Bruce Brown was an extremely crucial part of the Nuggets’ championship victory last season, coming off the bench as one of the league’s finest free agency pickups when they acquired him over the summer. Even though he had ups and downs throughout the regular season, veteran journeyman Jeff Green nonetheless proven to be a vital member of Denver’s infield.
Despite playing a more restricted role overall than Denver will require of him this season, Christian Braun, a now-sophomore, made his imprint as a rookie as well, particularly in the Nuggets’ Finals series. Furthermore, Peyton Watson is filling in for Green in the minutes that have been left empty since Jackson took over as backup point guard after Brown’s departure.
The Nuggets must endure the minutes that Jokic is off the floor as a result of the deadly Jokic-Murray combination mentioned earlier. Even though Jamal Murray has missed 23 games this season, Jackson has been a vital contributor for Denver, despite his uneven play. In addition, the Nuggets are taking a major risk by relying heavily on Braun and Watson to perform in pivotal, high-stakes postseason games given their youth and lack of experience.
Denver will have a huge advantage in winning the series if these bench guys can be predominantly contributors, or at the very least, neutral players.
The question is: How well will the “other” starters on both teams complement and support their respective star duos?
For Denver, that would be Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope; for the Lakers, it would be Hachimura, Austin Reaves, and D’Angelo Russell. These supporting players must be reliable and efficient in addition to playing good defense.
Porter and Russell are the third-leading scorers on their respective teams; if they don’t provide enough, any one might struggle.
In addition, players like as Gordon, Caldwell-Pope, and Hachimura will be absolutely essential to the defense, not just in carrying out their own responsibilities but also in creating a snowball effect that will improve the offensive performances of their elite colleagues by preventing the potentially detrimental grind of doing the same.
There is a very real chance that the entire series might swing either way depending on how well or poorly their key role players perform.
Which side will win more “battles of the margins” in categories like paint scoring, rebounding, turnovers and free throw rate?
The teams’ relative advantages in terms of turnovers, points off turnovers, rebounds, paint points, and free throw attempts during last year’s playoff matchup between Denver and Los Angeles could potentially become a tipping point in the series if that situation recurs or if one team wins the majority of these battles-within-battles.
